Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
